This month the Public Religion Research Institute release its 2023 Census of American Religion, the most comprehensive such study we get. It's an incredible resource, and you can get down to the level of your own county (or any other) through the website.
What'd we learn from this work? It really matters how you slice the American public. Like many pollsters, PRRI breaks White Christians into three basic groups: Mainline Protestants, Evangelical Protestants, and Roman Catholics. (Orthodox Christians and LDS believers are not bunched by race.) These findings jump out at me.
- Broken down this way, the largest religious affiliation is "None" (27%).
- Only 41 percent of Americans today identify as White Christians in this model. (This includes Orthodox and LDS.) In 2006 that number was 60 percent.
- Catholics, Evangelicals, and Mainliners have roughly the same numbers now. Evangelicals have been in rapid decline, while Mainliners are really old but holding steady.
- Non-White Christians are basically holding steady or growing due to immigration.
- Black and Hispanic Americans are the most religious in terms of affiliation.
There's a political skew too. Democrats are far more religiously diverse than Republicans, who track as old and Christian. According to PRRI founder Robert Jones, Republicans map on to religion like 70 year-old Americans, while Democrats map onto 18 year-olds.
Authoritarianism and Religion
PRRI also released "One Leader Under God: The Connection Between Authoritarianism and Christian
Over 43 percent of Americans score high on their Right-Wing Authoritarianism Scale (RWAS).
Based on the reading I've done, I'll offer a few observations here.
- Authoritarian sentiment grows under two predictable conditions: rapid social change and marked economic inequality. The United States is a model candidate in those respects.
- This explains why Donald Trump has a firm baseline of support. His followers like the very things his opponents hate. They will not leave him. Even when Trump lies and terrorizes a city like Springfield, OH, they like it. Even when he blames Jews for his potential loss, they like it.
- Christians are more likely than not to have high RWAS scores. Black Christians are 44 percent likely. Non-Christians are unlikely (26% of nones, 27% of Jews).
Trunp's followers only trust a very few sources of news, and Trump is #1. That means they may not even know when he's particularly terrible.
Christian nationalism and New Apostolic Reformation beliefs correlate strongly to authoritarian attitudes. Also, NAR beliefs have spread broadly.
- "Two-thirds of Republicans (65%) agree that “the final battle between good and evil is upon us, and Christians should stand firm with the full armor of God,” compared with 39% of independents, and 32% of Democrats. More than eight in ten Christian nationalists (84%) hold this apocalyptic position, as do 70% of Americans with high RWAS scores and 61% of those with high CRAS scores."
- "Just one in four Americans (25%) believe that 'God wants Christians to take control of the "‘7 mountains’" of society,” including 39% of Republicans, 18% of independents, and 17% of Democrats, while fewer than two in ten Americans (17%) believe that America was chosen by God to be a new promised land for European Christians (30% of Republicans, 15% of independents, and 8% of Democrats)." That promised land for European Christians gets at both Christian nationalism and racism.
- "Most Americans reject patriarchal views that defend traditional gender roles; however, Republicans and Christian nationalists are more likely than others to support these views."
- "Republicans are more likely than independents and Democrats to agree that patriots may have to resort to violence (27%, 15%, and 8%, respectively); Americans need to ensure the rightful leader takes office, even with violence (24%, 15%, and 10%, respectively); and that armed citizens are needed as poll watchers (24%, 10%, and 10%, respectively). Republicans with favorable views of Trump are more likely to agree with all three statements (32%, 27%, and 28%, respectively)."
That's where we are, friends.
Miscellaneous
1. The racism is intentional. And they're doubling down. J. D. Vance today on Haitians in Springfield, Ohio: "I'm still gonna call them an illegal alien." (But they have legal documentation.)
2. Election subversion is already underway. In 2020 it was haphaard. Now it is planned and organized.
- Texas has eliminated 500,000 voters from the rolls.
- The Nebraska legislature is considering changing their electoral college contribution just because it's possible that 1 electoral college vote, based in Omaha, could win the election for Harris.
- Georgia's Board of Elections, dominated by three election deniers, is changing the rules so that every ballot is counted by hand. (Hint: what the GOP wants to do is slow down the count so that states can fail the deadine and have their electoral college votes contested.)
- More than 10,000 voting locations in red state Black/Latino neighborhoods have been closed.
- Right now NAR leaders are urging followers to register as poll watchers and election workers.
(Those first four bullet points were gleaned from Qarim Rashid.)
3. Possibly good election news for Democrats--but horrible news altogether: North Carolina GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson has a full-blown scandal on his hands. The uber-"Christian" candidate has an online record of referring to himself as a "black Nazi," defending slavery, and sharing his proclivity for kinky online sex. Oopsie. We don't know how this will turn out, but it can't be good for Donald Trump.
