The Donald Trump presidency has reached a point of clarity. Twice Trump
issued a tweet essentially threatening to intervene in the Mueller
investigation.
Trump’s ominous tweet arrived just one week after he’d issued
basically the same threat on Fox
News: “You look at the corruption at the top of the FBI -- it's a disgrace.
And our Justice Department, which I try and stay away from, but at some point I
won't.”
Seven days: two nearly identical threats. Trump is preparing the
field to go full Nixon, firing the people investigating him and jamming the
gears of constitutional democracy.
Trump’s determination to fend off the Russia investigation is
hardly news, but the crisis grows ever more acute. He fired FBI director James
Comey. When he pushed his own FBI director to fire deputy director Andrew
McCabe, Director Christopher Wray threatened to resign. Trump got rid of McCabe
anyway, and the Justice Department threatens to prosecute McCabe. We’ve even
learned that Trump tried to fire special counsel Robert Mueller, only to be
backed down by his own White House lawyer, and has discussed firing Deputy
Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. When Attorney General Jeff Sessions, himself
in jeopardy, recused himself from the investigation, Trump attacked Sessions
both publicly and behind closed doors. There’s no question at this point that
Donald Trump wants to rub out the Mueller investigation.
Most threatening, it appears congressional Republicans will
support Trump’s efforts no matter the cost. Some House Republicans have
threatened to impeach Rosenstein for refusing to share information with them –
about an ongoing investigation, no less. All these dynamics should lead us to
ask, “What if Trump wins?” What if he fends off the investigation, maintains
congressional majorities, and moves ahead with his agenda? What should we
expect?
1. Count on more corruption: self-enrichment and nepotism. Trump’s
presidency began with his promise to remove himself from his businesses, the
new president standing beside a table of folders containing his agreements to relinquish
authority of those enterprises. But the folders held only blank
paper. Although Trump repeatedly asserted that he had no dealings with
Russia, his representatives actively pursued Trump
Tower Moscow in the early stages of the 2016 campaign. But that’s just
small change. We also have Robert Mueller investigating the connections between
Jared Kushner’s meetings with foreign dignitaries and his never-ending search for
big-time financing, including the possibility that Trump punished Qatar
for turning away Kushner’s advances. And remember Donald Trump Junior’s foreign
policy address in India that suddenly became more of a fireside chat? We have
lots of questions about Trump and India.
2.
If we’re talking about corruption, we’ll need the courage to
confront an ugly image: a fish rots from its head. EPA Administrator Scott
Pruitt leads the pack with his 50 dollar a night DC digs and a house purchased
with help from a lobbyist, and we haven’t even broached his outrageous travel
expenses. In just twenty or so trips, former Health and Human Services secretary
Tom Price managed to spend a million dollars. Price lost his job, as did former
VA secretary David Shulkin who turned his job into Wimbledon tickets and used
federal funds for his wife’s travel. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke gave the
reconstruction of Puerto Rico’s electrical grid to an untested, understaffed
hometown firm; he too has travel expense problems. And Treasury secretary Steve
Mnuchin apparently used government money to tour Fort Knox and observe the
solar eclipse. In this light Ben Carson’s $31,000 dining room purchase looks
like chump change. With a Trump win, expect the rot to work its way all the way
down.
3.
Observe how Trump targets his corporate opponents. The pressure
can be negative, as when Trump attacked Amazon,
falsely claiming their business was a drain on the Postal Service. His real
enemy is Amazon owner Jeff Bezos, who owns the Washington Post. Trump’s Justice Department also opposes the merger
TimeWarner, owner of CNN, another Trump media nemesis, with AT&T. Scandalous
as such examples are, Trump influences corporations in other dysfunctional
ways. Trump claims his tax
cuts have led companies to invest in workers. But consider the mixed reports
the case studies Trump cites: WalMart put $700 million into raises and bonuses,
while it is closing 50 stores, while the $252 million Apple was pulling back
into the United States was largely on the way anyway.
4.
Expect endless warmongering and brinksmanship. The book remains
open as to whether Trump’s Korea initiative will bear fruit. If it does, Trump
will score a historic accomplishment. But Trump has also threatened to attack Venezuela.
All the bluster around his two attacks on Syria led to one-time, ineffectual
displays. It remains unclear how the US will deal with its nuclear agreement
with Iran,
but Trump seems bent on starting conflict there as well. Here’s how it looks to
me: All the bluster makes Trump look strong in the eyes of his supporters, but
it weakens the true influence of the United States.
5.
Expect more erosion of the rule of law. For appearances’ sake,
Trump has offered a tiny dose of tough talk toward Russia. Congress has imposed
sanctions, which Trump refused
to activate. As a candidate and as president Trump has repeatedly
criticized
judicial
rulings. His attacks on the FBI and the Justice Department indicate that Trump
expects to overwhelm the judicial system by means of political force.
6.
Trump’s attacks will eventually diminish the news media. Trump
rallies still collect the media into holding areas so that his supporters can
boo and ridicule them. He complains that libel laws aren’t strong enough. He
offers his appearance to the news media of which he approves and avoids other
outlets. All of this is easy to see. Perhaps more sinister, the media still
doesn’t know how to cover Trump, treating him like an ordinary president who
seeks what’s good for America rather than his own self-aggrandizement. Many in
the news media have performed heroically. Just this week the Washington
Post called things as they are: “It has become standard operating
procedure for Trump and his aides to deceive the public with false statements
and shifting accounts.” For the first time reporters have finally pressed the
White House press secretary to explain why Americans should believe the
president. But if Trump wins, expect the media to weaken.
7.
The gravest threat to democracy, should Trump suppress the Mueller
investigation, involves voting. As a candidate
and immediately after his election, Trump challenged the legitimacy of the
popular vote. He still repeats
the lie that millions of people voted illegally in 2016. In January Trump
finally gave up on his bogus Voter
Fraud Commission. But Republicans have long sought to suppress the ballot
through gerrymandering and Voter ID laws. Racism
has been a key feature of Trump’s campaign and presidency, and it shows in
voting: racial
resentment among whites proved a primary
factor in support from Trump. For the rest of us, this means that a Trump
triumph could lead to the end of free and fair elections, in large part through
his attacks on minority communities.
8.
Eventually we should expect a ruined economy. Trump’s
infrastructure plan is scarcely feasible and has no momentum. A Trump
government will never invest in America’s human capital by providing education
and nurture for children. Indeed, education sits right in the crosshairs of
Trumpist policy. Trump only cares about appearances, so he seeks immediate
victories over long-term prosperity. The current tax legislation provides a
perfect example: it raises the debt, cuts revenue, and redistributes wealth
toward the wealthy elite. A prosperous society requires investment, democracy,
and fairness. Trump shares none of those values. If you want to imagine a
Trumpist economy, think Putin, not Eisenhower.
In her recent novel Three
Daughters of Eve, the Turkish author Elif Şafak conjures a chilling conversation
about the value of democracy. The setting is a dinner party of Turkish elites.
“Frankly, I don’t believe in democracy,” said an architect with a
crew cut and perfectly groomed goatee. His firm had made huge profits from
construction projects across the city. “Take Singapore, success without
democracy. China. Same. It’s a fast-moving world. Decisions must be implemented
like lightning. Europe wastes time with petty debates while Singapore gallops
ahead. Why? Because they are focused. Democracy is a loss of time and money.”
All over the world, from Russia to Singapore, from Italy to China,
from Poland to the Philippines, democracy is rolling backward. Authoritarianism
feeds on the fear of cultural change, the fear that things will get worse
unless a great leader – a great man,
in just about every case – takes the reins. Feeling insecure about their hold
on prosperity, relatively prosperous white people looked to Trump to turn back
the cultural clock.
(Contrary to popular opinion, white working class voters were less
likely to support Trump than rich people were).
Trump’s ominous inauguration address,
followed almost immediately by notorious Muslim ban, led me to wonder how
things might turn out if Trumpism has its way. One image kept coming to mind:
Kiev in 2014.
The Ukraine has far less experience
with democracy than does the United States, with far weaker institutions. Things
still haven’t settled down there, but in 2014 the Ukrainian people rejected
their Russian-backed president Yanukovych and demanded the restoration of their
former constitution. When they took to the streets, violence ensued that led to
over 100 deaths. If Trump wins, and if he does so by suppressing democratic
institutions and shuttering the Mueller investigation, are Americans willing to
take to the streets in our cities like the Ukrainians did in 2014?
I’m afraid we’re about to find out.
