What If Trump Wins?

The Donald Trump presidency has reached a point of clarity. Twice Trump issued a tweet essentially threatening to intervene in the Mueller investigation.

Trump’s ominous tweet arrived just one week after he’d issued basically the same threat on Fox News: “You look at the corruption at the top of the FBI -- it's a disgrace. And our Justice Department, which I try and stay away from, but at some point I won't.”

Seven days: two nearly identical threats. Trump is preparing the field to go full Nixon, firing the people investigating him and jamming the gears of constitutional democracy.

Trump’s determination to fend off the Russia investigation is hardly news, but the crisis grows ever more acute. He fired FBI director James Comey. When he pushed his own FBI director to fire deputy director Andrew McCabe, Director Christopher Wray threatened to resign. Trump got rid of McCabe anyway, and the Justice Department threatens to prosecute McCabe. We’ve even learned that Trump tried to fire special counsel Robert Mueller, only to be backed down by his own White House lawyer, and has discussed firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. When Attorney General Jeff Sessions, himself in jeopardy, recused himself from the investigation, Trump attacked Sessions both publicly and behind closed doors. There’s no question at this point that Donald Trump wants to rub out the Mueller investigation. 

Most threatening, it appears congressional Republicans will support Trump’s efforts no matter the cost. Some House Republicans have threatened to impeach Rosenstein for refusing to share information with them – about an ongoing investigation, no less. All these dynamics should lead us to ask, “What if Trump wins?” What if he fends off the investigation, maintains congressional majorities, and moves ahead with his agenda? What should we expect?

1.      Count on more corruption: self-enrichment and nepotism. Trump’s presidency began with his promise to remove himself from his businesses, the new president standing beside a table of folders containing his agreements to relinquish authority of those enterprises. But the folders held only blank paper. Although Trump repeatedly asserted that he had no dealings with Russia, his representatives actively pursued Trump Tower Moscow in the early stages of the 2016 campaign. But that’s just small change. We also have Robert Mueller investigating the connections between Jared Kushner’s meetings with foreign dignitaries and his never-ending search for big-time financing, including the possibility that Trump punished Qatar for turning away Kushner’s advances. And remember Donald Trump Junior’s foreign policy address in India that suddenly became more of a fireside chat? We have lots of questions about Trump and India.

2.       If we’re talking about corruption, we’ll need the courage to confront an ugly image: a fish rots from its head. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt leads the pack with his 50 dollar a night DC digs and a house purchased with help from a lobbyist, and we haven’t even broached his outrageous travel expenses. In just twenty or so trips, former Health and Human Services secretary Tom Price managed to spend a million dollars. Price lost his job, as did former VA secretary David Shulkin who turned his job into Wimbledon tickets and used federal funds for his wife’s travel. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke gave the reconstruction of Puerto Rico’s electrical grid to an untested, understaffed hometown firm; he too has travel expense problems. And Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin apparently used government money to tour Fort Knox and observe the solar eclipse. In this light Ben Carson’s $31,000 dining room purchase looks like chump change. With a Trump win, expect the rot to work its way all the way down.

3.       Observe how Trump targets his corporate opponents. The pressure can be negative, as when Trump attacked Amazon, falsely claiming their business was a drain on the Postal Service. His real enemy is Amazon owner Jeff Bezos, who owns the Washington Post. Trump’s Justice Department also opposes the merger TimeWarner, owner of CNN, another Trump media nemesis, with AT&T. Scandalous as such examples are, Trump influences corporations in other dysfunctional ways. Trump claims his tax cuts have led companies to invest in workers. But consider the mixed reports the case studies Trump cites: WalMart put $700 million into raises and bonuses, while it is closing 50 stores, while the $252 million Apple was pulling back into the United States was largely on the way anyway.

4.       Expect endless warmongering and brinksmanship. The book remains open as to whether Trump’s Korea initiative will bear fruit. If it does, Trump will score a historic accomplishment. But Trump has also threatened to attack Venezuela. All the bluster around his two attacks on Syria led to one-time, ineffectual displays. It remains unclear how the US will deal with its nuclear agreement with Iran, but Trump seems bent on starting conflict there as well. Here’s how it looks to me: All the bluster makes Trump look strong in the eyes of his supporters, but it weakens the true influence of the United States.

5.       Expect more erosion of the rule of law. For appearances’ sake, Trump has offered a tiny dose of tough talk toward Russia. Congress has imposed sanctions, which Trump refused to activate. As a candidate and as president Trump has repeatedly criticized judicial rulings. His attacks on the FBI and the Justice Department indicate that Trump expects to overwhelm the judicial system by means of political force.

6.       Trump’s attacks will eventually diminish the news media. Trump rallies still collect the media into holding areas so that his supporters can boo and ridicule them. He complains that libel laws aren’t strong enough. He offers his appearance to the news media of which he approves and avoids other outlets. All of this is easy to see. Perhaps more sinister, the media still doesn’t know how to cover Trump, treating him like an ordinary president who seeks what’s good for America rather than his own self-aggrandizement. Many in the news media have performed heroically. Just this week the Washington Post called things as they are: “It has become standard operating procedure for Trump and his aides to deceive the public with false statements and shifting accounts.” For the first time reporters have finally pressed the White House press secretary to explain why Americans should believe the president. But if Trump wins, expect the media to weaken. 

7.       The gravest threat to democracy, should Trump suppress the Mueller investigation, involves voting. As a candidate and immediately after his election, Trump challenged the legitimacy of the popular vote. He still repeats the lie that millions of people voted illegally in 2016. In January Trump finally gave up on his bogus Voter Fraud Commission. But Republicans have long sought to suppress the ballot through gerrymandering and Voter ID laws. Racism has been a key feature of Trump’s campaign and presidency, and it shows in voting: racial resentment among whites proved a primary factor in support from Trump. For the rest of us, this means that a Trump triumph could lead to the end of free and fair elections, in large part through his attacks on minority communities.

8.       Eventually we should expect a ruined economy. Trump’s infrastructure plan is scarcely feasible and has no momentum. A Trump government will never invest in America’s human capital by providing education and nurture for children. Indeed, education sits right in the crosshairs of Trumpist policy. Trump only cares about appearances, so he seeks immediate victories over long-term prosperity. The current tax legislation provides a perfect example: it raises the debt, cuts revenue, and redistributes wealth toward the wealthy elite. A prosperous society requires investment, democracy, and fairness. Trump shares none of those values. If you want to imagine a Trumpist economy, think Putin, not Eisenhower.

In her recent novel Three Daughters of Eve, the Turkish author Elif Şafak conjures a chilling conversation about the value of democracy. The setting is a dinner party of Turkish elites.

“Frankly, I don’t believe in democracy,” said an architect with a crew cut and perfectly groomed goatee. His firm had made huge profits from construction projects across the city. “Take Singapore, success without democracy. China. Same. It’s a fast-moving world. Decisions must be implemented like lightning. Europe wastes time with petty debates while Singapore gallops ahead. Why? Because they are focused. Democracy is a loss of time and money.”

All over the world, from Russia to Singapore, from Italy to China, from Poland to the Philippines, democracy is rolling backward. Authoritarianism feeds on the fear of cultural change, the fear that things will get worse unless a great leader – a great man, in just about every case – takes the reins. Feeling insecure about their hold on prosperity, relatively prosperous white people looked to Trump to turn back the cultural clock.

(Contrary to popular opinion, white working class voters were less likely to support Trump than rich people were).

Trump’s ominous inauguration address, followed almost immediately by notorious Muslim ban, led me to wonder how things might turn out if Trumpism has its way. One image kept coming to mind: Kiev in 2014.

The Ukraine has far less experience with democracy than does the United States, with far weaker institutions. Things still haven’t settled down there, but in 2014 the Ukrainian people rejected their Russian-backed president Yanukovych and demanded the restoration of their former constitution. When they took to the streets, violence ensued that led to over 100 deaths. If Trump wins, and if he does so by suppressing democratic institutions and shuttering the Mueller investigation, are Americans willing to take to the streets in our cities like the Ukrainians did in 2014?

I’m afraid we’re about to find out.