According to multiple sources, on Tuesday Russia's central newspaper Pravda published the number of Russian casualties--9861 killed, 16,000 wounded--then removed it. These numbers are lower than Ukrainian estimates, but they're still shocking. According to some experts, a modern army cannot sustain an offensive with this rate of casualties.
So for the first time, lots of experts are beginning to believe Ukraine is actually winning this war. That's not necessarily good news if Vladimir Putin becomes desperate. A Russian cyber attack could wreck infrastructure, particularly in the US. And we don't want to contemplate him following up with his nuclear threats.
Acknowledging those legitimate dangers, we can also hope for Putin's reasoned decision to accept Ukraine's sovereignty and relinquish stolen territory. Here's Anne Applebaum:
The Ukrainians, and the democratic powers that support Ukraine, must work toward a goal. That goal should not be a truce, or a muddle, or a decision to maintain some kind of Ukrainian resistance over the next decade, or a vow to “bleed Russia dry,” or anything else that will prolong the fighting and the instability. That goal should be a Ukrainian victory.
Experts have been wrong about a lot of things in this war, but this outlook is a change.
Other Notes
I've just started reading Timothy Snyder's The Road to Unfreedom, which tracks the lines between authoritarianism in Russia and what's happening in the United States. A Yale historian, Snyder is a Ukraine specialist, so he knows exactly what he's talking about.
A big takeaway from Snyder: if somebody shows you their fascist tendencies, take them seriously. The signs are everywhere: book banning, don't say gay, voter suppression, you name it. Yesterday a United States senator actually said he'd be fine if the matter of interracial marriage were left up to the states.
I don't want to jump into the perpetual outrage machine, but I'm also alarmed how few Americans realize the danger we're in.
Dorothee Soelle warned of the fascist tendencies she observed in U.S. politics back in the 1990s during a weekend retreat I had the fortune to attend at Kirkridge. She was clear and direct, and of course had first-hand experience of that about which she spoke. What grieves me most, I think, is to see how many persons who proclaim themselves Christian support this drift (now plunge) into fascism and authoritarianism.
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